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5G opens three major power switches to pull the trillion market

addtime:2019-06-12 14:39:51


If a car is traveling at 100 kilometers per hour, a network delay of 30 milliseconds means a moving distance of 83.33 centimeters, while a moving distance of 1 millisecond is only 2.78 centimeters. In fact, many traffic accidents occur between this idea. According to statistics, the average brake response time of drivers is about 0.8 seconds. The rapid response capability of automatic driving under 5G network is better than that of humans.

In the Shanghai test site 1,200 kilometers away, a real car is connected to the long-distance driving platform in Beijing via the 5G test network. Starting, accelerating, turning, the vehicle in Beijing remote control Shanghai is not much different from the real-time driving experience. The ultra-low latency of 5G guarantees the safety of daily driving habits in remote operation, and the ultra-high speed also makes the car HD camera The external environment is transmitted back to the control screen in real time.

Not long ago, at a communication exhibition in Beijing, a 5G long-distance driving platform jointly built by Huawei, China Mobile and SAIC Group became the most eye-catching focus of the audience.

It won't take long for this prototype to open its exhibitions and test sites, enter people's daily lives, and enter the oncoming 5G era.

Under the two-wheel drive of technology and demand, 5G is accelerating. The intergenerational transition of mobile communication technology often leads to an exponential increase in system performance, and it has spawned new business that has emerged in an endless stream, becoming the iconic scale of social progress. 5G will achieve 100 billion-level connectivity, 10Gbps speed and latency as low as 1 millisecond, which will bring ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality and other extreme communication experiences, and more likely to detonate multiple verticals such as Internet of Vehicles and Industrial Internet. The rapid development of the industry.

Compared with the previous people's main connection targets, 5G pays more attention to the connection of objects: in the three major scenes of 5G, the two major scenes of massive machine communication, low latency and high reliability communication are the main connection objects. Large connectivity, wide-area coverage and lower power consumption enable the Internet of Things, represented by smart cities and smart homes, to integrate with mobile communications. 5G will also be widely used in remote control, autopilot, factory automation and other fields. Thousands of devices will be connected to the 5G network. The era of the Internet of Everything is coming out.

In the future, 5G will likely become a general-purpose technology, like power and the Internet, as a catalyst for changes in many industries. This will open up trillions of market space. Some analysts predict that by 2030, the total social output and economic value added by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 2.9 trillion yuan respectively, creating 8 million jobs; 5G will create 123,000 in the world by 2035. Billion dollars of economic output.

Technical requirements drive 5G accelerated iteration

Since the 1980s, mobile communications have evolved at a rate of once every ten years or so. Following this rule, mobile communications is now striding towards the 5G era.

Throughout history, the intergenerational transition of mobile communication technology has often led to an exponential increase in system performance, and has led to an endless stream of new business, which has become a landmark for social progress.

From 1G to 2G, mobile communication has completed the transition from analog to digital, and on the basis of voice services, it has begun to support low-speed data services. From 2G to 3G, the peak rate exceeds 2Mbps, supporting mobile multimedia services such as video telephony. 4G transmission capacity is an order of magnitude higher than 3G, and the peak rate can reach 100Mbps to 1Gbps. The upcoming 5G will provide peaks above 10Gbps, millisecond latency and ultra-high-density connectivity for a new leap in network performance.

Wei Kai, deputy director of the Mobile Internet and Big Data Department of China’s ICT, told 21st Century Business Herald that under the joint promotion of technology and demand, 5G is rapidly advancing.

Technically, he said that 5G will replace traditional bandwidth with more sophisticated algorithms and higher computing power, and improve communication capabilities with rapidly evolving IT technologies.

He said Moore's Law (that is, every 18-24 months, the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will double and the computing performance doubled) continues to play a role in the communications field, now on the transmitter side. The receiving end can use computing power to improve the efficiency of communication.

Li Shan, vice president of China Mobile and Mobile, said that the biggest difference between 5G and previous generations of communication is that the latter has a core technology, such as 3G with CDMA, 4G with LTE, but 5G with this. Rather, it improves performance by meeting a diverse set of technologies to meet diverse needs. For example, the use of large-scale antennas to increase the network transmission rate, the use of dense networking to meet the needs of hotspots, to reduce the delay and cost by simplifying the air interface structure and network structure.

At present, 5G technology has identified 8 key capability indicators: peak rate reaches 10Gbps, spectrum efficiency is 3 times higher than IMT-A, mobility is 500km/hour, delay is as low as 1m, user experience data rate reaches 100Mbps, and connection The density reaches 10 to the 6th power per square kilometer, the energy efficiency is 100 times higher than IMT-A, and the flow density reaches 10Mbps per square meter. The first four are traditional indicators, and the last four are new indicators.

Due to the diversification of key indicators, 5G can support eMBB (enhanced mobile broadband), mMTC (mass machine communication), and uRLLC (low latency and high reliability communication) in a single scenario with respect to 4G. This enables 5G to meet the ultimate experience of VR, ultra-high-definition video, and support massive IoT device access to meet the stringent requirements of car networking and industrial control.

In Wei Kai's view, the development needs of the above-mentioned industries are another major driving force for the rapid development of 5G.

Taking the ultra-high-definition industry as an example, Xu Zheng, a professor at the Institute of Optoelectronic Technology of Beijing Jiaotong University, told the 21st Century Economic Reporter that at present, in China, ultra-high-definition video, panel and other terminals are no longer a problem, but the biggest bottleneck of the product is the front-end transmission, 5G. The landing is conducive to breaking this bottleneck.

High speed is the primary feature of 5G, and its network transmission rate will reach 10Gpbs, which means that users can download a 50G ultra-high definition video in 40 seconds when using 5G. This is ultra-high definition video such as 4K/8K, VR/AR, Fast downloading, cloud services and other industries provide strong technical support.

The era of "Internet of Everything" is coming

The previous mobile communication mainly solved the communication between people, and 5G pointed to the Internet of Everything: in the future 5G era, the connection of people is only a small part, and more is between people and things, things and things. Connection. In the three major scenes of 5G, the two scenes of mMTC and uRLLC are aimed at the connection of objects.

5G will support massive machine communication. Wang Zhiqin, head of China's IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group and vice president of China's ICT, said that with the deep integration of related scenes represented by smart cities and smart homes, it is expected that hundreds of billions of devices will be connected. Enter the 5G network. She said that by 2030, the total number of devices connected to the mobile network will exceed 100 billion.

Recently, Peng Jian, a researcher at the Radio Management Research Institute of the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told 21st Century Business Herald that 5G will be combined with the next generation Internet IPv6 to promote the connection of massive objects.

The advancing IPv6 can increase 340 trillion IP addresses, which will enable a grain of sand on the earth to have its own IP address, plus 5G billion-level access capability, which can meet the needs of massive devices. In addition, NB-IoT (narrowband Internet of Things), which is on the verge of explosive growth, will also be an important prelude to 5G commercialization. The former has made significant breakthroughs in many areas such as shared bicycles, remote meter reading, and smart cities.

"In terms of large connections, NB-IoT is very similar to 5G, and NB-IoT will evolve toward 5G." Peng Jian said that 5G massive machine communication needs to reduce power consumption and cost, improve the battery life of sensors and other devices, and increase The life of the equipment, "the power consumption of the previous technology is relatively high, and now a battery can be used for ten years, which is an important reason for the rapid development of NB-IoT."

In a low-latency, high-reliability communication scenario, the Internet of Vehicles is a typical example. A number of respondents told 21st Century Business Herald that the Internet of Vehicles will be the first vertical application for 5G technology.

Peng Jian said that unlike other Internet of Things, which adopts non-uniform standards such as infrared and Bluetooth, the Internet of Vehicles decided to use mobile cellular technology at the beginning. In the 4G background, LTE-V2X has accumulated a lot of technology. With the arrival of 5G, the Internet of Vehicles is expected to smoothly transition to 5G-V2X.

At the above-mentioned communication exhibition, Huawei's technical staff told 21st Century Business Reporter that the ultra-low latency is the core capability of 5G to support such applications, which ensures the rapid response capability of the network. In general, 3G network latency will be 100 milliseconds, 4G can reach 20-30 milliseconds, and 5G network latency is further reduced to 1 millisecond.

This difference may not be obvious when surfing the Internet, but it is critical for safe industries such as autonomous driving: if a car is traveling at 100 km/h, a 30 ms network delay means 83.33 cm. The distance is moved, and the moving distance of 1 millisecond is only 2.78 cm. In fact, many traffic accidents occur between this idea. According to statistics, the average brake response time of drivers is about 0.8 seconds. The rapid response capability of automatic driving under 5G network is better than that of humans.

This feature will also make 5G widely used in the field of remote control of heavy equipment, factory automation, factory real-time monitoring, smart grid and remote surgery, which greatly promotes the development of industrial Internet, energy Internet and telemedicine.

China Telecomtsu's recent report predicts that by 2030, China's 5G investment (communication equipment and communication services) in the four industries of industrial Internet, telemedicine, Internet of Vehicles and energy Internet will reach 200 billion yuan and 64 billion yuan respectively. 12 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan.

Three major powers in the trillion market

A report released by Qualcomm in 2017 predicts that 5G will generate $12.3 trillion in global economic output by 2035. From 2020 to 2035, 5G will contribute to global GDP growth equivalent to the same size economy as India. .

According to the report, 5G technology will become the same general technology as inventions such as power and the Internet, and become a catalyst for transformation and transformation of many industries, and become a part of the main driving force for social and economic development.

The “5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper” issued by China’s Xintong Institute measured the impact of 5G on the Chinese economy: in terms of total output, according to the formal commercialization of 5G in 2020, it is expected that the direct output of about 484 billion yuan will be driven that year. In 2025 and 2030, this figure will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan respectively.

It is worth noting that as the 5G commercial process continues to advance, the driving force for output growth will shift from network construction to terminal equipment to information services.

In the early stage of 5G commercialization, large-scale carrier network construction and 5G network equipment investment may be the main source of 5G economic output. The white paper estimates that in 2020, the total revenue of network equipment and terminal equipment will be about 450 billion yuan. Among them, telecom operators invested more than 220 billion yuan in 5G network equipment, and the expenditure on 5G equipment in various industries exceeded 54 billion yuan.

A communications industry insider said that early investment mainly focused on the construction of 5G base stations, mainly to the main equipment and supporting network planning, construction, towers and transmission, and then to RF devices, optical modules, base station antennas and so on.

He predicted that the future 5G? macro base station will be 1.25 times that of 4G, about 4.5 million; the average cost of a single base station is expected to reach 156,700 yuan, so the total investment of China's 5G network construction will reach 705 billion yuan, an increase of 56.7 over 4G. %.

Li Hongwei, director of the Institute of Radio Management of the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the 21st Century Business Herald that from 4G to 5G, it is necessary to consider the technical leap and the cost of equipment replacement. The current 4G network does not need to be completely replaced, such as Huawei. Continuity has been taken into account when designing your own base station, which helps to reduce the cost of replacement. "In addition, the network construction should be combined with the promotion of the terminal, otherwise the road will be repaired well, and it will not work without the car."

Terminal equipment will be another growth driver to take over the construction of the network. The white paper predicts that in the middle of 5G commercial use, terminal equipment spending and telecom service spending from users and other industries will increase significantly. By 2025, these two expenditures are expected to reach 1.4 trillion and 0.7 trillion yuan.

On the terminal side, the first thing to do is to update the mobile phone. According to a recent 5G consumer survey conducted by Qualcomm, more than 86% of respondents need or are willing to use faster connections on the next smartphone, and more than 50% of respondents intend to go public after 5G smartphones Make a purchase.

It is worth noting that in the 5G era, mobile phones are only one type of network access devices. With the penetration of 5G into vertical industry applications, other devices supported by 5G will emerge in large numbers. The above white paper predicts that in 2030, industries will spend more than 520 billion yuan on 5G equipment.

In the middle and late 5G commercial, digital content services such as 8K video and virtual reality education systems will enter thousands of households, and Internet companies and 5G-related information service revenues are expected to increase significantly. The white paper predicts that by 2030, the revenue generated by 5G will reach 2.6 trillion yuan, of which the revenue generated by telecom operators' traffic revenue will be about 900 billion yuan, and the information services provided by various information service providers will generate about 17,000 yuan. Million GDP.

“The industry says that 4G changes life and 5G changes society. 5G itself is a very long industry chain, including upstream base station upgrades, midstream network construction, downstream terminal products and application services. More importantly, 5G will become a 'Energy', it will penetrate a wide range of industries, such as industry, energy, medical care, education, urban management, etc., and it is possible to detonate many vertical industries such as car networking with new performance, thus profoundly changing the whole society. "At the above exhibition, an employee of Huawei said with confidence.